We invite you to call and ask about any of these market situations we have discussed or to ask about our considerations for the best trade opportunities for the day or for the week. We also welcome any comment on our weekly commentary as well. We believe, through our years of experience, that what we offer is of value. We are confident enough, in fact, to say to you to tell your friends, relatives and neighbors about us too. Please feel free to contact us at 1 800 321-5810 or email to cbands@cbandsbrokerage.com
The Trade Focus commentary
as well as the market analisys portion of this edition were written on Tuesday April 21st.
We needed to move up our normal scheduling for this week's Trade Focus as a previous commitment requires us to publish a day early. There is virtually no economic news being released other than Leading Indicators which came out down 0.3 pct versus the 0.2 pct decline that was expected. We are writing this portion of the commentary Tuesday the 21 st and will begin the market analysis portion during the same afternoon.
Several months ago we spoke of how we felt there had been numerous opportunities for positions in a number of the futures markets. Volatility was prevalent and at times violent but that is what provided the opportunities. There was, after all, a 7700 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials from nearly 14200 in October 2007 to a low of 6470 by early March 2009. With that, many commodity markets made large moves as well. Crude Oil had a huge and annoying run to record high prices that spanned from a price of roughly 50.00 per barrel in January 2007 to nearly 160.00 per barrel by July of 2008. That preceded a decline to the lows not seen since 2004. Many of the currency markets, very notably the euro, had made tremendous gains versus the dollar before reaching a peak in April and July of 2008 near 16000 to where it has now fallen back to the lows of 2006 just below 12500. We said back near election time that we expected for opportunities similar to what had recently been seen would likely continue to present themselves. We believe this has been true. The areas of metals, foreign currencies and we can't forget the recent 200 point gain in the S&P 500 off its lows are a few examples. This is significant and our point this week is that we believe we are in a period of time where we can continue to expect price movement, aka volatility, of significance to occur for some period of time. This being the case we believe it important to stay in tune, remain informed and continue to follow our breakdown analysis of the various commodity futures markets.
 Cocoa (May/July) - Two weeks ago a suggested short entry in the May contract was initiated when the prices penetrated beneath 25.10. Last week we said it was time to roll to the July contract and we are using the prices of 2329 for the May and 2380 for July as our basis. The current July price shows it closing at 2429. Stop protection for this short entry we believe can be lowered to intraday penetration of 2526. The initial target we place at an area around 2250. We believe lower prices will follow at some point from there. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 2519; 2572; 2625.
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Coffee (July) - Last week we suggested short entries could be initiated with penetration of 11460. This price was elected. We had also suggested a sell zone between 11850 to 11950 could be used to initiate short entries but these levels were not reached and are no longer valid due to the subsequent price action. We suggest stop protection remain at intraday penetration of 11860 for the time being. We will be updating retracement levels next week.
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Sugar (May) - Short entries from 1334 or above could have been initiated based upon our suggestion of last week. We believe stop protection remain at intraday penetration of 1411. We will also suggest that additional or new shorts could be added upon penetration of 1273. We believe this remains valid and if elected, stop protection should be intraday penetration of 1341. Retracement levels will be updated with further development.
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 Feeder Cattle (August) - Last week we suggested short entries could be initiated with intraday penetration of 9987. This has yet to be elected but we believe this short entry approach remains valid. Stop protection for this short entry approach remains intraday penetration of 10210. Retracemnent levels of support are approx.: 9932; 9827; 9723.
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 Silver (May/July) - Short positions in the May contract remain intact from the suggested sell zone between 1320 and 1375 and with the penetration of 1294. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 1319. We also suggested that any new or additional short entries be made in the July contract with either intraday penetration of 1158 or a close beneath 1195. The close below 1195 was elected (118140 on 4/17/09 ). We believe the stop protection for the new July short entry should remain intraday penetration of 1293. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 1220(hit); 123350; 1247. The next series above is approx.: 125750; 128300; 130850.
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 Gold (JUNE) - The short entry from the basis price of 92850 we rolled from the April contract remains active and we believe stop protection should remain intraday penetration of 93620. We also suggested new or additional short entries could be initiated upon intraday penetration of 86440 and we believe this remains valid. The stop protection for this short entry approach would also remain as intraday penetration of 90270. This new entry has yet to be elected. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 90470; 91720; 92960. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 85120 and 81360.
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 Euro Currency (June) - A new short entry was elected with penetration of 13092. Stop protection we believe should be changed to intraday penetration of 13211. It appears to us that the euro is set up to test the March lows some time in the near future. We will update retracement levels after additional market pattern development.
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| Japanese Yen (June) - We believe that the yen needs more development at this time before we can suggest either a long or short entry. We will update s soon as this market presents a more clear trading position.
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 Canadian Dollar (June) - We believe short entries can be initiated in a sell zone between 8160 and 8210. We suggest stop protection should be intraday penetration of 8377. We believe that there will be potential to the mid to low 7000's if our interpretation is correct. Near term retracement resistance levels are approx.: 8110; 8160; 8210. |
 Mexican Peso (June) - Several weeks ago we suggested long entries could be initiated at a price of 69625 or lower and which have since been active. Last week we wrote, "It appears that the Mexican Peso has attained a level where reducing the amount of positions may be warranted. We do not suggest, however, that entire long entry positions be liquidated. We believe a core position should be maintained where possible." The low since our last edition, April 16, has been 73725 after reaching 76400 on 4/17/09 . We suggest now that stop protection for remaining long entries can be raised to intraday penetration of 73675. There will be no new suggested entries until further market development. |
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 S&P 500 (June emini) - Suggested long entries from the close of 83550 would have seen stop protection elected with penetration of 82950. We believe that there will be a period of some days or weeks of correction to the recent market advance that began March 6. With this in mind we suggest short entries can be initiated in a sell zone between 84700 and 85350. Stop protection for these short entries should be intraday penetration of 87325. We believe that an initial target area for this correction is in the area of the current 50 day moving average which is approx. 78500. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 79200; 76750; 74250. |
 Chicago Wheat (May) - There has been an active short entry from the suggested sell zone of 550 - 560. We will now roll our coverage to the July contract. The current price of May is 509.50 and the July we show as 520.75. We will use these prices as our basis. Stop protection for the July position should be intraday penetration of 54625. New short entries we believe can be initiated with intraday penetration of 49625. Stop protection for this entry we suggest should be intraday penetration of 52125. Retracement levels will be updated with further market and pattern development.
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 Soybeans (May/July) - We will roll our coverage from the May contract to the July. There are no active entries and therefore no active suggestions basis the May contract. We believe short entries can be initiated at a price of 1040 or higher. If initiated, stop protection we believe should be intraday penetration of 106525. Another approach we suggest for short entries can be intraday penetration of 99275. If initiated, stop protection should be intraday penetration of 1017. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 97900; 95250; 92525.
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 T-Bonds (June) - There is an active suggested short entry from the sell zone between 129-21 and 130-11. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 128-12. We also have suggested a short entry can be initiated upon penetration 123-03. If elected we suggest stop protection with intraday penetration of 125-17. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 127-28.5; 128-25; 129-21.5. The next major series above is approx.:129-21; 131-23; 133-24. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 124-19 and 120-28.
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Ten Year Notes (June) - We believe we can keep to what we said in last week's edition which was, "Short entries from the suggested sell zone between 124-13 and 124-26 should maintain stop protection upon intraday penetration of 124-22. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 123-30 and 124-15." |
