|
TRADE Focus
08/20/2009
We invite you to call and ask about any of these market situations we have discussed or to ask about our considerations for the best trade opportunities for the day or for the week. We also welcome any comment on our weekly commentary as well. We believe, through our years of experience, that what we offer is of value. We are confident enough, in fact, to say to you to tell your friends, relatives and neighbors about us too. Please feel free to contact us at 1 800 321-5810 or email to cbands@cbandsbrokerage.com
Both the Trade Focus commentary and the market analysis section were written during the course of business on Thursday, August 20th.
Economic news to hit the wires since last Friday included the government's inflation numbers where the CPI for July reported a flat 0.0% change in the headline number and with the core number registering a rise of just 0.1 pct. Following these were the PPI figures which were actually rather deflationary. The headline PPI for July was reported dropping 0.9 pct compared to expectations of a 0.3 pct decline. The Core PPI was down 0.1 pct from June and had been expected to show an increase of 0.1 pct.
News related to the industrial sector found Industrial Production for July rising 0.5 pct., much as expected and Capacity Utilization came in at 68.5 pct beating consensus estimates by .02%.
Index reports included The University of Michigan Sentiment Index which was disappointing with a reading of 63.2 compared to the 69.0 that was expected and the 66.0 of the previous month. The Empire Manufacturing Index for August was a pleasant surprise at 12.08 compared to July's minus 0.55.
In the important area of housing we saw July Housing Starts reported at a pace of 581,000 which was slightly disappointing compared to the 599,000 expected. The Housing Permits portion of the report was also below expectations at 560,000 units compared to the 577,000 consensus estimate.
The last of the economic news for our reporting week includes Leading Indicators for July which were reported at 0.6 pct and was slightly below the consensus expectation of 0.7 pct. and the Philadelphia Fed August report which was a surprise to the strong side at 4.2 versus the minus 2.0 that was expected. Tomorrow will bring July Existing Home Sales which are expected to be 5.00 mln units.
Other news of particular interest and impact to the commodities world was the announcement from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that they were withdrawing the "no-action letters" that allow for exemption to speculative position limits from two firms running commodity index funds. The two that have been targeted so far are funds that had the exemption for position limits in the CBT grain markets - wheat corn and soybeans. Many traders and analysts seem to agree the initial impact is negative toward these commodities as long positions held in these futures contracts would need to be liquidated. There were some, however, that expressed the belief that the overall impact would be muted as the funds likely have been given a period of time to make adjustments and also that these two particular funds may not have been holding positions in excess of current non-exempt limits. There is, though, speculation that the government will announce additional action against other commodity index funds. We believe this will be worth watching and interesting to see if and when it will widen to include other markets such as energy futures.
Note: We are archiving the Traders Focus from here on so that those interested can follow more easily.
 SUGAR (OCT) -
We have retracement resistance levels based on the monthly data that may be of interest. The first series that applies is approx.: 1889 (hit); 2402; 2915. The next series above is approx.: 2663; 3414; 4166.
|
 Silver (Sept) - Our suggested short entry with a close below 140850 would have been elected with the close on Aug. 17 at 138200. For the time being we believe the suggested stop protection with intraday penetration of 144550 should remain. We believe this can be lowered to intraday penetration of 142350 if there is a close at 134900 or lower. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 141370; 143370; 145380. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 134400; 125680; 116970.
|
 Gold (Oct) - Last week we suggested two approaches to short entries. One was from a price level of 95940 or above which could have been elected as the high since we wrote was 96020. If short from that entry approach we believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 96310. The second approach for short entry was intraday penetration of 92570. We will amend that to intraday penetration of 92870 or a close of92990 or lower. Stop protection for this entry we believe should be intraday penetration of 94970 or a close of 94280 or above. Near term retracement resistance levels are approx.: 94610; 95120; 95630. The retracement levels of support noted last week have all been met and we will update as soon as the trading pattern allows.
|
 Euro Currency (Sept) - There is a suggested short entry from two weeks ago that is active from the price level of 14350 or above. We believe stop protection for this should remain as intraday penetration of 14461. Last week we suggested that short entries could be initiated in a sell zone between 14265 and 14310. The high since we wrote last week has been 14308 allowing for this short entry to be elected. For now stop protection should remain intraday penetration of 14461. Another suggested short entry approach from two weeks ago of a close below 14064 we believe remains valid. If this short entry is elected we believe stop protection should be intraday penetration of 14333. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 14180 (hit); 14095 (hit); 14010. The next series below is approx.: 13851; 13665; 13479.
|
|  Japanese Yen (Sept) - A sharp rally off the August 7 low of 10228 carried to a level just slightly above a key retracement. We have noticed a pattern with this and believe that short entries can be initiated from a price of 10625 or above. Stop protection if elected we believe should be a close at or above 10751 or with intraday penetration of 10772. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 10511; 10457; 10403. The retracement resistance levels have all been hit and are approx.: 10486 (hit); 10566 (hit); 10647 (hit). The next series is approx.: 10486 (hit); 10679 (hit); 10872 (hit).
|
|
 Mexican Peso (Sept) - There is an active long entry from the close of 76350 on August 5. We believe stop protection can be raised to intraday penetration of 75425. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 75875; 75050; 74225.
|
 British Pound (Sept) -
There is an active short position from our suggestion two weeks ago from a price level of 16800 or above. We believe stop protection for this suggested short entry can be lowered to intraday penetration of 16756. We had also suggested a new or additional short entry with a close below 16398. We believe this short entry can be amended to a close at or below 16460. If this suggested short entry is elected stop protection should be intraday penetration of 16622. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 16565; 16656; 16748.
|
 Canadian dollar (Sept) - Last week reinstituted coverage of the Canadian Dollar. We suggested that short entries could be initiated in a zone between 9215 and 9260. The high since we wrote that was made August 14 at 9249 allowing this short entry to be made. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 9306. Near term retracement resistance levels are approx.: 9145 (hit); 9195 (hit); 9245 (hit). Retracement levels of support are approx.: 9076 (hit); 8972; 8868. The next series below is approx.: 8760; 8557; 8355. |
|
 S&P 500 (Sept emini) - There was a suggested long entry at 95350 initiated July 21 that would have seen its stop protection elected with the intraday penetration of 98575. We suggest new long entries can be made with a close at or above 101750. If elected into this long entry we believe stop protection should be intraday penetration of 97475.  A close at that 101750 price level we believe will activate near term targets of approx. 104500; 106800; 1085. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 95850; 94075; 92300. |
 Feeder Cattle (OCT) -
We have had an active short entry from a price level of 10250 for a few weeks now. We believe stop protection should be lowered to a close at or above 10212 or with intraday penetration of 10237. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 10136 (hit); 10102; 10269.
|
 Soybeans (Nov) - We believe short entries can be initiated with a close at or below 93900 or intraday penetration of 92900. If elected we believe stop protection should be intraday penetration of 97100. We will update retracement levels as soon as the new pattern allows.
|
 Wheat (Sept) -
We believe short entries can be initiated at a price of 53400 or above. We suggest stop protection for this short entry suggestion should be intraday penetration of 55900. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 52300; 53475; 54675.
|
 T-Bonds (Sept) - Last week we suggested long entries could be initiated with intraday penetration of 119-10. This would have been elected as the high has been 120-24.5 since we wrote last week. We believe stop protection can be raised to intraday penetration of 117-23. If a new high is made above 120-24.5 we suggest that the stop protection be raised to intraday penetration of 118-14.5. We will be rolling coverage of this long entry to the December contract in next week's edition.
|
 Ten Year Notes (Sept)- Last week we suggested that long entries could be initiated with a close above 117-16. This would have been elected with the 117-24 close of August 17. We believe stop protection should be raised to intraday penetration of 116- 15. We will be rolling coverage of this position to the December contract in next week's edition. |
Archive
|
