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TRADE Focus
09/10/2009
We invite you to call and ask about any of these market situations we have discussed or to ask about our considerations for the best trade opportunities for the day or for the week. We also welcome any comment on our weekly commentary as well. We believe, through our years of experience, that what we offer is of value. We are confident enough, in fact, to say to you to tell your friends, relatives and neighbors about us too. Please feel free to contact us at 1 800 321-5810 or email to cbands@cbandsbrokerage.com
The Trade Focus commentary was written on Wednesday, September 9th and the market analysis section was written during the course of business on Thursday, September 10th.
The return from the Labor Day holiday saw some dramatic action. Many traders woke up or made it into their office to see gold above $1000 per ounce and crude oil up over 2.00 per barrel. The US Dollar was in a tailspin and pushing various commodities such as the gold and crude oil into new recent high territory.
We heard an awful lot of chatter about traders rushing in to get on board some of these markets. What we want to stress and remind everyone about is the need to be diligent regardless of all the frenzy and seemingly can’t miss market situations. We have been reiterating the emotional trade theme the past few weeks and believe the action so far this week is a good example to learn from. Gold, after being $13 or so higher early, actually traded lower on the day and managed to close only a few dollars higher from the previous settlement. Today (Wednesday), the dollar index again was plummeting but managed to stop at what may be a legitimate channel line.
The idea is to remember on each and every trade to make sure that the trading checklist has been checked. We have used the quarterback analogy in the past describing a QB’s check down procedure. This may not be a perfect analogy but we like it, if for no other reason, at least for its sports reference. There should be a checklist that is used to make sure a trade qualifies for entering. If the conditions on the list do not exist the trade does not qualify. Yes, profitable trades may be missed, but we believe more than likely, and from personal experience, that many losing trades can be avoided. For example, if the US Dollar index were to have been sold early this morning it is likely that a short would have been entered at a level of support. There are likely few checklists that include a rule that reads “sell when price reaches a trend line of support.” Perhaps it would be best to allow for further confirmation such as breaking and closing out of and below the channel. That may be on a few checklists.
Too often market participants become too impatient or over excited. If an opportunity has been missed, so be it. There will be another. It is usually unwise to increase the risk parameter for a trade by chasing an entry much like a batter expanding his strike zone. It more than likely becomes a problem and not a solution. If you’ve missed your spot let it go.
| Date of release |
Economic Report |
Actual |
Expected |
Previous |
Previous
Revised from |
Sep 04 |
Aug Average Workweek |
33.1 |
33.1 |
33.1 |
-- |
Sep 04 |
Aug Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Sep 04 |
Aug Nonfarm Payrolls |
-216K |
-230K |
-276K |
-247K |
Sep 04 |
Aug Unemployment Rate |
9.7% |
9.5% |
9.4% |
-- |
Sep 08 |
Jul Consumer Credit |
-21.6B |
-4.0B |
-15.5B |
-10.3B |
Sep 10 |
Jul Trade Balance |
-32.0B |
-27.3B |
-27.5B |
-27.5B |
| Date of release |
Upcoming Economic News |
Expected |
Prior |
Sep 11 |
Sep Mich Sentiment-Prel |
67.5 |
65.7 |
Sep 11 |
Jul Wholesale Inventories |
-1.0% |
-1.7% |
Sep 15 |
Aug Core PPI |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
Sep 15 |
Aug PPI |
0.8% |
-0.9% |
Sep 15 |
Aug Retail Sales |
1.6% |
-0.1% |
Sep 15 |
Aug Retail Sales ex-auto |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
Sep 15 |
Sep Empire Manufacturing |
NA |
12.08 |
Sep 15 |
Jul Business Inventories |
-0.8% |
-1.1% |
Sep 16 |
Aug Core CPI |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Sep 16 |
Aug CPI |
0.4% |
0.0% |
Sep 16 |
Net Long-term TIC Flows |
NA |
-31.2B |
Sep 16 |
Aug Capacity Utilization |
69.1% |
68.5% |
Sep 16 |
Aug Industrial Production |
0.7% |
0.5% |
Sep 17 |
Aug Building Permits |
570K |
564K |
Sep 17 |
Aug Housing Starts |
588K |
581K |
Sep 17 |
Sep Philadelphia Fed |
NA |
4.2 |
Note: We are archiving the Traders Focus from here on so that those interested can follow more easily.
Natural Gas (Nov.) - This is a new market we are adding this week. It appears that there has been a reversal off the recent low on a daily basis. It is a bit more pronounced on the October contract but the October is due to expire September 28. This tends to be a rather volatile market, perhaps even more so than crude oil, therefore it may not be for everyone. But after a prolonged down trend it appears natural gas is showing signs of at least placing a temporary bottom. We believe we can suggest that long entries can be initiated at a price level of 4025 or lower and that stop protection should be intraday penetration of 3765. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 4114; 4308; 4503. The next series above is approx.: 4252; 4495; 4738. Since this has been such a steep decline over many months there will be additional levels above the market that will be stated here as they approach.
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SUGAR (OCT) -
Last week we said that a top of some consequence may have been either made or in the making. We suggested that those more aggressive could initiate short positions at a price level of 2350 or above. The high the next day (Friday Sept. 4 ) was 2364. Those on our email list would have had a chance to see this but the website does not get uploaded until sometime on Friday. That being said, if short based on the above suggestion we believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 2330. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 2214; 2265; 2317.
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Silver (DEC) - No new suggestions at this time. |
Gold (Dec) - We have no new suggestions at this time. The market in the December contract has breached the $1,000 per ounce level. That's saying a mouth full right there.
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Euro Currency (Sept/Dec) - There have been 2 suggested short entries active. One from a price level of 14350 and the other initiated in a sell zone between 14265 and 14310. The suggested stop protection of intraday penetration of 14461 would have been elected. At this time we withdraw the previous additional entry suggestion in the September contract as we roll our coverage now to the December. The euro pushed into higher ground with a breakout this week. If it were to reverse direction we believe a valid approach to become involved would be to initiate a short entry with a close at or below 14177. This would put the closing price below the 50 day moving average, which is currently 14197, for the first time since late April with the exception of one close on August 17.
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Mexican Peso (Dec) - We mentioned last week that we believed it likely that the Peso could move higher off of the September 1 low but that additional pattern development was needed to help clarify. The market did move higher before a nice 50 pct retracement of that bounce. It appears that this market can be approached from either side depending on penetration of this week's high or last week's low. They appear to bear that significance. We suggest that long entries can be initiated with intraday penetration of 74625 with stop protection utilizing intraday penetration of 73625. Conversely, short entries we believe, can be initiated with intraday penetration of 71425 utilizing stop protection with intraday penetration of 72825. Retracement levels of resistance are approx.: 73750 (hit); 74410 (hit); 75090. Near term retracement levels of support are approx.: 73390 (hit); 73040 (hit); 72690. |
British Pound (Sept/Dec) -
There were two active suggested short entries. One from a price level of 16800 or above triggered back on August 7 and one short entry from the August 17 close of 16338. Stop protection for both suggested short entries would have been elected with the 16486 close on September 8. We now roll our coverage to the December contract and notice that the high made today, and for the week thus far, has stopped at a significant .618 fib retracement. We believe that new short entries in the December contract can be initiated at a close at or below 16425. We suggest stop protection for this entry of intraday penetration of 16710. Near term retracement resistance levels are approx.: 16458 (hit); 16566 (hit); 16675 (hit).
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Canadian dollar (Dec) - We will stick to our suggestion of last week which is to initiate a short entry with a close at or below 8980. Stop protection we believe should be intraday penetration of 9120. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 9180 and 9136. The next series below is approx.: 9077; 8974; 8872. |
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S&P 500 (Sept/Dec emini) - There are no suggested entries in the September contract and we now roll our coverage to the December contract. We believe long entries can be initiated at a price level of 103600 or better. If elected we believe stop protection should be at intraday penetration of 100675. There are extension targets currently active of approx.: 103225 (hit) and 106875. The next set of extension targets above are approx: 106350 and 108325. |
Feeder Cattle (OCT) -
There is an active suggested short entry from the price level of 10250. We believe stop protection should be maintained at intraday penetration of 10155 or a close at or above 10090. Retracement levels of resistance are approx.: 9980; 10077; 10175.
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Soybeans (Nov) - We believe prices go lower in this market but would prefer to stay clear for the time being. The weather remains a factor and a freeze before this crop is made would be disastrous. We have friends that as producers have awakened to find a bean crop turned black. We wouldn't want to have suggested short entries with the possibility of this becoming a real event this year.
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Wheat (Dec) -
It has been difficult watching this price deterioration with out being on board with active suggested short entries. There are some extension targets that are becoming realistically close. There is actually a more near term (shorter wave structures) double number at approximately 441.00. There is another target pair utilizing a larger wave structure at approx.: 421.00 and 356.00. |
T-Bonds (Dec) -
Two weeks ago we rolled an active suggested long entry in the September contract from its penetration of 119-10 to the December contract with price basis levels of 120-12 for September and 119-05 for December. A new or an additional long entry could have been initiated with the intraday penetration of 120-02 from our suggestion two weeks ago. We believe stop protection for both suggested long entries can remain a close at or below 117-29. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 118-11.5; 117-14; 116-16.5. The next series lower is approx.: 117-03.5; 115-25.5; 114-16.
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Ten Year Notes (Dec) - Two weeks ago we rolled an existing suggested long entry in the September contract from the Aug. 17 close of 117-24 to the December contract with basis prices of 117-27.5 and 116-16.5 respectively. We believe stop protection can be raised now to intraday penetration of 116-09 or a close at or below 116-16. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 116-09; 115-22; 115-03. The next series below is approx.: 115-22; 114-30; 114-06. |
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