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Both the Trade Focus market analysis section was written during the course of business on Wednesday, September 30th.
Market Analysis is below although there is no commentary this week. Next week there will be no Trade Focus.
 Natural Gas (Nov.) - There have been two suggested long entries elected. The original long entry was from a suggested price level of 4025. (Note: We had suggested that some participants might choose to reduce the size of their position after it had reached 4738 and pulled back to the 4550 area noting this may have been some reasonable resistance.) We will amend the suggested stop protection for any remaining long entries from this approach to intraday penetration of 4369 or a close at or below 4459. We then suggested new or additional long entries could be initiated with intraday penetration of 4830 which was also elected. New or additional long entries from this suggested approach we amend stop protection to intraday penetration of 4540 or a close at or below 4588. We are adjusting our retracement resistance levels to approx.: 4888 (hit); 5320; 5752. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 4417; 4240; 4064. There are two sets of extension targets currently active which are approx.: 5019; 5155 and 5205; 5381. Last week we suggested that the 5320 area was a reasonable spot for lightening positions and we believe this still applies.
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SUGAR (Mar) -
The originally suggested short entry from 2350 in the October contract was rolled to the March contract with the October and March contracts at 2266 and 2393 respectively. The March contract would have seen the suggested stop protection elected with the September 28 close of 2410.
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 Silver (DEC) - There is a suggested short entry from the September 21 close of 168800. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 172000 or a close at or above 170300. New or additional short entries we believe can be initiated with intraday penetration of 155900 or a close at or below 156900. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 164850; 167150; 169450. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 157070; 150920; 144780.
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 Gold (Dec) - We believe we can suggest that short entries can be initiated with intraday penetration of 97930 or a close at or below 98440. Stop protection for this approach we believe should be intraday penetration of 100640 or a close at or above 100360. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 100090 (hit); 100560; 101040. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 98990; 97870; 96760. The next series below is approx.: 98090; 96690; 95290.
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 Euro Currency (Dec) - Last week we spoke of the September 23 rd reversal day for not only the Euro Currency but the stock indices as well. We suggested that short entries could be initiated at a level of 14725 or better. So far this was the highest price it has traded (Sept. 25) the day following our last edition. It would be unlikely to expect that orders could be filled. That being said we will suggest two entry approaches at this time. The first would be to initiate a short entry from a price level of 14719. Stop protection if elected we suggest should be intraday penetration of 14856. The second approach we suggest is to initiate short entries with intraday penetration of 14517. We suggest stop protection for this approach should be intraday penetration of 14692. Near term retracement resistances approx.: 14644; 14682; 14721. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 14593; 14514; 14436. The next series below is approx.: 14430; 14301; 14172.
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 Mexican Peso (Dec) - There was a suggested long entry initiated with the intraday penetration of 74625 that would have seen its stop protection elected with the intraday penetration of 72750. At the same time a suggested short entry would have been initiated with the 72750 penetration and we believe stop protection for this suggested short entry should remain intraday penetration of 74725.
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 British Pound (Dec) -
There is a suggested short entry from the 16271 close of Sept.18. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 16271 or a close at or above 16208. It appears that a Head and Shoulders formation that had formed has seen the neckline penetrated. We believe the price objective of this H&S counts to approx.: 15175. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 16135; 16251; 16367. The next series above is approx.: 16244; 16394; 16544. |
| Canadian dollar (Dec) - There are currently no active initiated entries and we withdraw the previous short entry approach of last week. We will wait for further price and pattern development. |
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 S&P 500 (Dec) - Our suggested long entry from the price level of 103600 would have seen its stop protection elected with the intraday penetration of 103700. The reversal day on September 23 remains intact and this prompted us last week to provide a short entry suggestion, for those interested in being short, from a price level of 105000 that would have been elected. The stop protection for this short entry approach from 105000 should remain at intraday penetration of 107900 or a close at or above 107650. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 104225 (hit); 103160; 102100. The next series below is approx.: 99450; 96920; 94375. |
Feeder Cattle (OCT) -
Today's action (Wed. Sept. 30) saw a key reversal. We have had a suggested short entry active from 10250 for some time now and believe this is a signal to exit. We suggest doing so on the open of Thursday's (Oct.1) market. We realize that some may not receive this information until after Thursday's open. For those participants we will suggest lowering stop protection to intraday penetration of 9722.
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 Soybeans (Nov) - The monthly data shows that the soybeans have corrected to very near the 50 month moving average as well as an uptrend line. We believe we can begin to look for a long entry from this price area. We realize harvest is upon us but price pattern and action we believe is what will dictate. We believe we can suggest a long entry with intraday penetration of 94400 or a close at or above 93900. Looking ahead, if this should begin to proceed higher, we suggest new or additional long entries can be initiated with a close at or above 96200. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 95830; 97870; 99930.
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 Wheat (Dec) -
We will stick with last week's suggestion: " We believe long entries can be initiated with intraday penetration of 48550 or with a close at or above 48250. Stop protection if elected we believe should be intraday penetration of 44500 or a close at or below 44900." Retracement levels of resistance are approx.: 49450; 51170; 52910. |
T-Bonds (Dec) -
There are no active suggested entries at this time. We will be watching further pattern development for new suggestions.
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 Ten Year Notes (Dec) - There is an active long entry suggestion initiated originally in the September contract and rolled to December at 116-16.5. We believe stop protection can be raised to intraday penetration of 117-08. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 116-16; 115-27; 115-07. |
