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TRADE Focus
10/29/2009
We invite you to call and ask about any of these market situations we have discussed or to ask about our considerations for the best trade opportunities for the day or for the week. We also welcome any comment on our weekly commentary as well. We believe, through our years of experience, that what we offer is of value. We are confident enough, in fact, to say to you to tell your friends, relatives and neighbors about us too. Please feel free to contact us at 1 800 321-5810 or email to cbands@cbandsbrokerage.com
The Trade Focus commentary was written on
Wednesday, October 28th and the market analysis section was written during the course of business on Thursday, October 29th.
There has been a lot of action and reaction during the course of the past week since we last published. We believe that the U.S. Dollar remains a driving force and influence for many of the commodity related markets as well as equities.
The Dollar had become extremely oversold and there seemed to be no analysts, reporter or citizen that had anything supportive to say about it. Various sentiment indexes have shown the bullish levels at readings of 3 pct. and perhaps even less over the course of the last month. That's an extreme. There has now been a move off of its lows and with it there has been a rather extensive sell off in energies, precious metals and equities. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, both composite and 100, have penetrated the major uptrend lines created off the March and July lows. They have also penetrated and closed below their respective 50 day moving averages.
What might all this mean? If we didn't have the fortune (or misfortune depending how you look at it) of seeing the Dollar sharply lower and everything else, except the Japanese Yen, Treasury and Livestock futures, sharply higher, we would say that the action of the last week up to yesterday's close was giving fair warning of things to come. That being a significant recovery in U.S. Dollar value and continued correction of note in the U.S. equities markets. Regardless of what might be occurring today, following a somewhat better than expected GDP figure, we will simply conclude by saying that we believe this initial warning should be taken seriously.
| Date of release |
Economic Report |
Actual |
Expected |
Previous |
Previous
Revised from |
| Oct 23 |
Sep Existing Home Sales |
5.57M |
5.35M |
5.09M |
5.09M |
| Oct 27 |
Aug CaseShiller Home Price Index |
-11.32% |
-11.90% |
-13.26% |
-13.30% |
| Oct 27 |
Oct Consumer Confidence |
47.7 |
53.5 |
53.4 |
53.1 |
| Oct 28 |
Sep Durable Orders |
1.0% |
1.0% |
-2.6% |
-2.4% |
| Oct 28 |
Sep Durable Orders ex Transportation |
0.9% |
0.7% |
-0.4% |
0.0% |
| Oct 28 |
Sep New Home Sales |
402K |
440K |
417K |
429K |
| Oct 29 |
3 rd Qtr Chain Deflator-Adv. |
0.8% |
1.4% |
0.0% |
|
| Oct 29 |
3 rd Qtr GDP-Adv. |
3.5% |
3.2% |
-0.7% |
|
| Oct 29 |
Weekly Initial Claims |
530K |
525K |
531K |
-- |
| Oct 29 |
Weekly Continuing Claims |
5797K |
5905K |
5945K |
5923K |
Note: We are archiving the Traders Focus from here on so that those interested can follow more easily.
 Natural Gas (Nov/DEC) - We had a suggested long entry in the November contract that some subscribers may have been able to execute, as we explained last week, from 4500 or lower. These would have been rolled to the December contract with the respective prices for November and December being 4944 and 5612. We also suggested a new or additional long entry in the December contract that would have been elected within a buy zone of 5575 and 5500. The suggested stop protection for these long entries would have been elected with intraday penetration of 5260 and or the close beneath 5370. There has been a sell off which today reached 4941 which coincides with a significant retracement level from the contract low to the high of 5989. We believe that we can suggest a new long entry can be initiated from a price level of 5075 or better. Stop protection for this new long entry if elected we believe should be intraday penetration of 4921. The retracement levels of support were approx.:5359; 5164; 4970. Retracement resistance levels will initially be approx.: 5339; 5463; 5588.
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 SUGAR (Mar) -
We believe we can stick to our previous week's suggestion, ". We believe at this time that those interested in long entries can do so with a close at or above 2546. Stop protection we believe should be intraday penetration of 2355. We also believe that those interested in a short entry approach can do so with a close at or below 2114. Stop protection for this short entry approach we believe can be intraday penetration of 2333 or a close at or above 2303."
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 Silver (DEC) - Last week we gave both a suggestion for a long entry approach and a short entry approach. The short entry would have been elected with the intraday penetration of 170600. The low since last week has been the 161200 of both yesterday and today. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 170600. We will withdraw the previous suggested long entry approach at this time. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 168990; 171420; 173860. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 160030; 153200; 146620.
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 Gold (Dec) - We had two approaches suggested last week. One was for a long entry and the other a short entry. The short entry approach would have been elected with the intraday penetration of 104170. The low for the week has been 102690 both yesterday (Wed.) and today. Today's strong rally on the heels of the economic reports (GDP) saw a high of 104840 as we prepare this section. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 105920 or a close at or above 105520. Regarding the long entry approach we believe we can stay with intraday penetration of 107550 or with a close at or above 107330. We will amend stop protection to intraday penetration of 105470 or a close at or below 105580. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 103920; 102890; 101870. The next series below this is approx.: 101680; 99980; 98280.
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 Euro Currency (Dec) - There has been a steep sell-off followed by a sharp rally with today's action. It does make it conflicting but we believe that we can suggest that short entries be initiated in a sell zone between 14875 and 14915. Stop protection for this suggested short entry approach should be intraday penetration of 15082 or a close at or above 15066. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 14824; 14869; 14915. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 14839 (hit); 14770 (hit); 14702 (hit). The next series below is approx.: 14675; 14556; 14437.
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 Mexican Peso (Dec) - Last week we suggested a long entry approach could be initiated in a zone between 75000 and 74200 which would have been elected. We believe stop protection for this suggested long entry can be raised to intraday penetration of 74375. Based on weekly data the retracement resistance levels are approx.: 78050; 82400; 86800. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 75325; 74625; 73925.
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British Pound (Dec) -
We will remain on the sidelines of this one.
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 Canadian dollar (Dec) - There is an active short entry approach from the Oct. 20 close of 9532. We believe stop protection should be lowered to intraday penetration of 9532. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 9451:9517; 9583. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 9318; 9169; 9021. |
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 S&P 500 (Dec eMini) - Last week we presented a short entry approach that would have been elected with the intraday penetration of 106625. The December contract proceeded to a low of 103725 today (Thurs.) before its sharp rally to close at 106150. We believe stop protection for this short entry can be lowered to intraday penetration of 109350 or a close at or above 109025. We believe we can keep the other new or additional short entry approach from last week also which is to initiate short entries with a close at or below 101150. Stop protection for this short entry approach should be intraday penetration of 105725. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 106085 (hit); 106800; 107550. |
 Feeder Cattle (Nov) -
Last week we suggested that any remaining short entries in the October contract (originally from 10250) should roll to November. Our basis prices on the roll would have been 9445 and 9640 respectively. We believe that we can suggest lowering stop protection on the short entries in the November contract to intraday penetration of 9682 or a close at or above 9662. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 9563 (hit); 9670; 9775. Near term retracement levels of support are approx.: 9492 (hit); 9440; 9390.
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 Soybeans (Nov) - We believe long entries can be initiated in a zone between 96500 and 95000. If elected we believe stop protection should be intraday penetration of 93700. Another approach we will suggest is to initiate long entries with intraday penetration of 99825. If elected we believe stop protection should be intraday penetration of 97175. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 97425 (hit); 95775; 94125.
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 Wheat (Dec) -
Remaining suggested long entries from the intraday penetration of 48550 back on Oct. 12 would have seen stop protection elected with the intraday penetration of 49450 this week. A few weeks ago we had posed the suggestion for those long entries to consider reducing some of their position at a price level of 50500 or above while it was on its way to its recent high of 57475. We believe we can suggest at this time another long entry approach at a price level of 49550 or lower. If elected we suggest stop protection with intraday penetration of 48625 or a close at or below 48925. |
 T-Bonds (Dec) -
There is an active short entry form the price level of 119-30 or better. We believe stop protection can be lowered to intraday penetration of 120-09 or a close at or above 120-02. An uptrend line of some significance was reached this past week with the lows at 117-25. Some may choose to reduce market exposure in the area of the trendline which is now approximately 118-00 and rising. We believe we can suggest, though, that new or additional short entries can be initiated with a close at or below 117-22. If elected we believe stop protection should be intraday penetration of 119-14.
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| Ten Year Notes (Dec) - No new suggested entries at this time. |
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