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TRADE Focus
11/19/2009
We invite you to call and ask about any of these market situations we have discussed or to ask about our considerations for the best trade opportunities for the day or for the week. We also welcome any comment on our weekly commentary as well. We believe, through our years of experience, that what we offer is of value. We are confident enough, in fact, to say to you to tell your friends, relatives and neighbors about us too. Please feel free to contact us at 1 800 321-5810 or email to cbands@cbandsbrokerage.com
Both the Trade Focus commentary and the market analysis section were written during the course of business on Thursday, November 19th.
We thought we would make another plug for the importance of exercising discipline and patience in the realm of trading markets. It is difficult to quantify the benefits. We believe they are extensive.
Discipline and patience allow for the creation of a plan and approach and then the adherence to them. Planning ahead for not only a market position entry but also for any of the events that can follow is, we believe, an essential element of success. Determining ahead of time where a position is wrong, where it may need to be adjusted and when profits need to be taken relieves much of the pressure that can build up emotionally when participating in market trading. It is much less stressful when a plan is in place and followed. It frees up time and mental space.
When a plan is in place and when it is implemented accordingly it will allow for the plan to do its job. It will allow for pattern development, fulfillment and execution, eliminating the guessing game that can enter into the thinking process. If all the contingents are handled ahead of time then this can be accomplished.
We have often recommended Mark Douglas's book The Disciplined Trader. Many of our clients who have read it have thanked us for suggesting it. We find that if a person is at all receptive to what Mr. Douglas has to say those eyes become opened wide.
| Date of release |
Economic Report |
Actual |
Expected |
Previous |
Previous
Revised from |
| Nov 12 |
Weekly Initial Claims |
502K |
510K |
514K |
512K |
| Nov 12 |
Weekly Continuing Claims |
5631K |
5700K |
5770K |
5749K |
| Nov 13 |
Sep Trade Balance |
-$36.5 |
-$31.8B |
-$30.8B |
-$30.7B |
| Nov 13 |
Nov Mich Sentiment-Prel |
66.0 |
71.0 |
70.6 |
|
| Nov 16 |
Oct Retail Sales |
1.4% |
0.9% |
-2.3% |
-1.5% |
| Nov 16 |
Oct Retail Sales ex-auto |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
| Nov 16 |
Nov Empire Manufacturing |
23.51 |
30.00 |
34.57 |
|
| Nov 16 |
Sep Business Inventories |
-0.4% |
-0.7% |
-1.6% |
-1.5% |
| Nov 17 |
Oct Core PPI |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
| Nov 17 |
Oct PPI |
0.3% |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
|
| Nov 17 |
Sep Net Long-term TIC Flows |
$40.7B |
$30.0B |
$34.2B |
$28.6B |
| Nov 17 |
Oct Capacity Utilization |
70.7% |
70.8% |
70.5% |
-- |
| Nov 17 |
Oct Industrial Production |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
0.7% |
| Nov 18 |
Oct Housing Starts |
529K |
600K |
592K |
590K |
| Nov 18 |
Oct Building Permits |
552K |
580K |
575K |
573K |
| Nov 18 |
Oct CPI |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
| Nov 18 |
Oct Core CPI |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
| Nov 18 |
Weekly Crude Inventories |
-0.887M |
NA |
1.76M |
|
| Nov 19 |
Weekly Initial Claims |
505K |
504K |
505K |
502K |
| Nov 19 |
Weekly Continuing Claims |
5611K |
5598K |
5650K |
5631K |
| Nov 19 |
Oct Leading Indicators |
0.3% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
| Nov 19 |
Nov Philadelphia Fed |
16.7 |
12.2 |
11.5 |
|
Note: We are archiving the Traders Focus from here on so that those interested can follow more easily.
 Natural Gas (DEC) - A good deal of the premium has been burned off during the course of this past week in particular. It may be time to focus our antenna here again but we are not comfortable with an entry approach at this time.
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 SUGAR (Mar) -
This market continues to triangulate. We believe we can stay with previous long and short entry suggestions which are: Long entries can be initiated with a close at or above 2416. Stop protection for this suggested long entry if elected we believe should be intraday penetration of 2289. The suggested short entry approach remains a close at or below 2114 with suggested stop protection of intraday penetration of 2333 or a close at or above 2303.
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 Silver (DEC) - Last week we suggested both a long entry and short entry approach. The long entry approach would have been elected with the intraday penetration of 178600. The high since this suggested long entry would have been initiated has been yesterday's high of 188550. We believe the stop protection can now be raised to intraday penetration of 180650. For the short entry approach we believe this can be amended to intraday penetration of 169850 or a close at or below 171450. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 178100; 174870; 171650. A broader measure of retracement support levels includes approx.: 164270; 156750; 149230. Expect to roll the December contract to March next week.
|
 Gold (Dec) - The long entry initiated with the intraday penetration of 107550 on November 3 remains active. The high achieved this week has been yesterday's high of 115340. We believe stop protection for this suggested long entry can be raised to intraday penetration of 109900 or a close at or below 111550. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 110550; 109050; 107550. The next series below is approx.: 108980; 106980; 104990.
|
 Euro Currency (Dec) - The Euro continues to swing back and forth. This week's high, since our last edition, was 15015. There is a suggested short entry that remains active from the zone between 14875 and 14915. The suggested stop protection remains intraday penetration of 15082 or a close at or above 15066. If there is a close beneath 14785 we believe the stop protection should then be lowered to intraday penetration of 14922. The retracement levels of support at approx.: 14886 (hit); 14836 (hit); 14786. There is another series at approx.: 14839; 14770; 14702. The next series below this is approx.: 14675; 14556; 14437.
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Mexican Peso (Dec) - We are going to remove the Mexican Peso from our coverage until we see something more formidable develop |
 British Pound (Dec) - There was a long entry approach initiated the week before last with the intraday penetration of 16754 on Nov. 9. We believe stop protection can be raised now to intraday penetration of 16469 or a close at or below 16567. We had also suggested a short entry approach which we shall now amend to a close at or below 16320. Stop protection for this suggested short entry if initiated we believe should be intraday penetration of 16517. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 16424; 16286; 16148.
|
 Canadian dollar (Dec) - We believe a short entry can be initiated with intraday penetration of 9186 or a close at or below 9207. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 9321; 9171; 9022. |
|
 S&P 500 (Dec eMini) - We believe the probability of a correction of some magnitude either has already begun or is close to beginning. A number of confluences exist that have to do with price and time sequences as well as a dramatically lopsided trader sentiment to name a few. Thus we shall offer two short entry suggestions. The first will be with the intraday penetration of 107950 or a close below 108075. ** We suggest that if initiated intraday that the position be exited if it should close that same day above 108350. If this short entry is elected we believe stop protection should be intraday penetration of 110275. The second short entry approach we believe can be suggested is for both new or additional positions. This remains the same as suggested last week with a close at or below 102425. The stop protection for this short entry approach if elected we believe can be amended to intraday penetration of 106675. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 107930; 106912; 105895. The next series below is approx.: 105850; 104175; 102525. |
 Feeder Cattle (Nov) -
For any remaining short entries which began in the October contract from 10250 and rolled to the November contract should now lower stop protection to intraday penetration of 9512 or a close at or above 9452.
|
 Soybeans (Jan) - There remains an active suggested long entry from the price zone between 96500 and 95000. During the course of this week there was another new or additional long entry initiated with the intraday penetration of 102550. We believe stop protection for both suggested long entry approaches can now be intraday penetration of 99700 or a close at or below 100200. There are extension targets of 103970 (hit); and 105875.
|
 Wheat (Dec) -
The December Wheat contract stopped this week at 58350 putting it just slightly above the 58175 retracement resistance of import and within a breath or two of what we now see as a .750 extension target at approx. 58870. Some participating in this market move may choose to reduce the quantity of their position and we would suggest for our purposes here a price of 56000 or better. Stop protection for this suggested long entry we believe can be raised to intraday penetration of 52650 or a close at or below 53075. We believe too that new or additional long entries can be initiated with intraday penetration of 58925. Stop protection for this suggested long entry we believe should be intraday penetration of 55875. Retracement resistance levels are approx.: 54800 (hit); 58175 (hit); 61575. Retracement levels of support are approx.: 54750; 53625; 52475. The next series below this is approx.: 52900; 51175; 49475. Extension targets are approx.: 57100 (hit); 58870.
|
 T-Bonds (Dec) -
There was a suggested short entry that would have been elected this week with the intraday penetration of 117-22. Its stop protection would have also been elected with the intraday penetration of 119-14. It appears the market has moved to a retracement resistance level of significance. We believe short entries can be initiated at a price level of 120-28 or better, Stop protection for this suggested short entry we believe should be intraday penetration of 121-26. Retracement levels of resistance are approx.: 119-24 (hit); 120-17 (hit); 121-10 (hit). If the December Bond does not trade above 121-11 the retracement levels of support are approx.: 119-26; 119-10; 118-27.
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| Ten Year Notes (Dec) - We will withdraw the suggested short entry approach made last week and wait further market development. |
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